An arbitrage engine that remembers the fees

What it does

Oracle3 is a Python trading engine plus MCP server for prediction markets. It discovers contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, inspects their rules and order books, and checks five logical relationships between related contracts — implication, exclusivity, complement, same event, and event sum. When a relationship is violated, it builds a candidate arbitrage basket and reports gross edge, per-leg fees, and net edge. Execution can be simulated in a local paper ledger or run live via a separate CLI/Python engine with pre-trade risk limits.

The interesting bit

Most arbitrage talk ignores fees until the trade evaporates. Oracle3 makes fee-adjusted net edge the default output of every calculation, and it exposes the assumptions behind each relationship check — so an agent (or a human) can see exactly what a basket is conditional on. The synthetic example in the docs is refreshingly honest: $5.00 gross edge shrinks to $1.59 after fees.

Key highlights

• 13 MCP tools covering market discovery, quotes, order books, fee math, fair-value models, and paper trading
• Six reusable agent Skills spanning research, strategy authoring, and paper/live operations
• Public market reads need no exchange credentials; live execution is deliberately split off from the MCP layer
• Trading engine with paper/live adapters for Kalshi, Polymarket, and Solana via DFlow, plus Wang-transform pricing models
• CI validates the built package through real MCP sessions on SDK 1.x and 2.x; 600+ tests per the repo description

Caveats

• The README is explicit that this is research and education software, with the usual financial-risk disclaimer
• Live trading requires the separate engine and credentials — the agent-facing MCP layer is read/paper only by design
• Model-level agent evaluation is listed as a “next research direction,” so the agent side is still maturing

Verdict

Worth a look if you build trading agents or want a fee-honest calculation layer for event contracts. If you wanted a turnkey money-printing bot, this is a research harness, not a promise.